In January, the Legislature likely will begin considering how to implement a key component of the federal health care reform law in California: the expansion of Medicaid coverage to most people with incomes at or below 138 percent of the federal poverty line (an eligibility limit that currently is $15,415 per year for an individual). As we noted in a blog post last week, the vast majority of the cost of the expansion will be covered by the federal government, including 100 percent of the cost from 2014 to 2016. As a result, the expansion is likely to have a relatively minor impact on the state budget. This assessment is reinforced by a new report from the Kaiser Family Foundation. The report, authored by researchers from The Urban Institute, uses a rigorous study design to estimate the impact of boosting access to Medicaid — known as Medi-Cal in California — in all 50 states.
The cost to California of expanding Medi-Cal coverage is projected to account for less than 2 percent of total state Medi-Cal spending over the next 10 years. Specifically, the report projects that California is on track to spend about $375 billion on Medi-Cal between 2013 and 2022 — without taking the Medi-Cal expansion into account. Expanding Medi-Cal as envisioned in the federal Affordable Care Act would add only about $6 billion to the state’s costs over this 10-year period, equal to just 1.7 percent of total projected state Medi-Cal spending.
The study estimates that the state’s relatively modest $6 billion investment would allow an additional 1.9 million Californians to access affordable health care coverage through Medi-Cal in 2022 alone. In addition, the study projects that expanding Medi-Cal would bring nearly $69 billion in additional federal dollars — 11 times the state’s investment — into California’s health care sector and the broader state economy over the next decade. That’s quite a bang for the state’s health care buck.
— Scott Graves