SACRAMENTO, CA — A new report by the California Budget & Policy Center (Budget Center) highlights the critical flaws in Proposition 36, which will be on the ballot for California voters on November 5. The report, authored by Budget Center experts Monica Davalos and Scott Graves, scrutinizes Prop. 36’s potential impacts, revealing escalating costs, deepening disparities, and ineffective solutions.
According to the report, Prop. 36 proposes to increase the penalties for several drug and theft crimes, a move that could significantly drive up state prison costs, cut funding for crucial behavioral treatment, and exacerbate homelessness. The key findings of the report include:
- Increase Penalties and Costs: Prop. 36 would raise penalties for drug and theft offenses, potentially leading to a surge in state prison and local jail populations. This increase would likely strain budgets with significant new costs for incarceration and the court system, estimated by the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) to range from several tens of millions of dollars to the low hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Californians for Safety and Justice (CSJ), a leading statewide public safety advocacy group, projects even higher costs, estimating up to $4.5 billion in additional state and local expenses.
- Reduction in Critical Services: Prop. 36 would reverse progress made by Proposition 47, which allocated savings from reduced incarceration to fund behavioral health services, education programs, and crime victim support. The report indicates that Prop. 36 could shift tens of millions of dollars annually away from these essential services, jeopardizing the success of community safety programs and behavioral health treatment initiatives.
- Increased Risk of Homelessness: The report underscores that Prop. 36 could worsen homelessness in California by funneling more individuals into the carceral system without addressing their housing needs. This could perpetuate a harmful cycle, as individuals exiting incarceration face significant challenges securing stable housing, which is crucial for successful reintegration and reducing recidivism.
“Proposition 36 would represent a return to failed, punitive approaches that have proven costly and ineffective,” said Monica Davalos, senior policy analyst at the California Budget & Policy Center. “Instead of focusing on increasing incarceration, we should invest in proven, evidence-based strategies that address the root causes of crime and uplift communities.”
Additionally, a recent data hit by Graves supports these findings, emphasizing that while crime rates have seen a modest rise post-pandemic, crime rates remain well below historical peaks. For instance, the property crime rate was 2,273 per 100,000 residents in 2023, compared to a peak of 6,881 in 1980. Similarly, the violent crime rate stood at 511 per 100,000 in 2023, less than half of the 1992 peak of 1,104.
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The California Budget & Policy Center (Budget Center) is a nonpartisan research and analysis nonprofit advancing public policies that expand opportunities and promote well-being for all Californians.
