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COVID-19 Recession at Six Months: California’s Unemployment Remains High

Persistent Economic & Racial Disparities for California Workers Point to Urgent Need Extend Support

September 2020 | By Alissa Anderson

Millions of Californians are struggling to pay for basic necessities like housing and food amid the worst recession in recent history. California’s unemployment remains extremely high, particularly for Black and brown Californians. What’s more, the financial situation for many people has deteriorated as Congress has failed to extend additional federal unemployment benefits or provide any new economic relief that would significantly help children, families, and individuals who have lost income and cannot safely return to work. This report shows how California’s workers are faring six months into the COVID-19 recession and highlights the urgent need for federal and state policymakers to extend support to people and do more to respond to the economic crisis that is exacerbating health and financial disparities for Californians, especially Black and brown Californians.

California’s Unemployment Remains High, Know the numbers:

California is still down more jobs than the state lost during the Great Recession.

California is still down more jobs than the state lost during the Great Recession. As of August, California was still down by 1.7 million jobs because of the COVID-19 crisis. This is about 400,000 more jobs than the state lost due to the Great Recession, which began in 2007. Earlier this year, California lost a total of 2.6 million jobs – twice the number lost due to the Great Recession.

As of August, California had gained back just 34% of the 2.6 million jobs the state lost in March and April

About two-thirds of the jobs California lost have not returned. As of August, California had gained back just 34% of the 2.6 million jobs the state lost this past spring. Most of these gains (21%) occurred in June as the state loosened restrictions on businesses that were put into place to slow the spread of COVID-19. In July and August, however, job gains slowed dramatically as California reimposed business restrictions to respond to spiking virus cases. In fact, a sizable share of jobs added in August were temporary positions related to the decennial US Census that will end when the Census count wraps up this fall. In other words, without these temporary jobs, August gains would have been much weaker.

All major private-sector industries in California still have fewer jobs than before the COVID-19 recession began

All major private-sector industries in California still have fewer jobs than before the COVID-19 recession began. The leisure and hospitality industry, which includes jobs at restaurants, hotels, and entertainment venues, remains the hardest hit industry. As of August, this industry was still down 657,000 jobs, meaning that about two-thirds of the 982,000 jobs the industry lost between February and April were still gone. In fact, this industry, together with the “other” services industry, which includes face-to-face personal care jobs, began to lay workers off again in August. This likely reflects the fact that California reimposed restrictions affecting many businesses in these industries in early July amid rising COVID-19 cases.

Unemployment remains higher for Californians of color and Black Californians have yet to see a notable decline

Unemployment remains higher for Californians of color and Black Californians have yet to see a notable decline. At the peak of the COVID-19 recession, the unemployment rate reached 20% or more for Asian, Black, Latinx and other Californians of color – several percentage points higher than the rate for white Californians. Job gains through August reduced unemployment for some groups, but disparities between Californians of color and white Californians persist. Also of great concern, Black Californians have yet to see any significant net job gains. Their unemployment rate has remained essentially unchanged since peaking this summer, possibly reflecting the persistent discrimination Black workers face in the workplace.

The unemployment rates presented in this report were adjusted to account for people the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspects were misclassified as employed but absent from work who actually were unemployed. For more information, see the technical note at the end of this report.

Unemployment rose higher for women in California and remains extremely high

Unemployment rose higher for women in California and remains extremely high. The unemployment rate for women increased by 20 percentage points between February and April, reaching 25%, while men’s unemployment rate rose by 15 percentage points, peaking at 20%. This means that at the worst point of the recession, 1 in 4 women were out of work, compared to 1 in 5 men. By August, unemployment rates had fallen to 14% for women and 12% for men, but remained extremely high, at more than twice their pre-recession rates.

Unemployment rose higher for immigrants in California and remains extremely high

Unemployment rose higher for immigrants in California and remains extremely high. The unemployment rate for immigrants increased by 21 percentage points between February and April, peaking at 25%, while non-immigrant’s unemployment rate rose by 16 percentage points, reaching 21%. In other words, 1 in 4 immigrants were out of work at the worst point of the recession, compared to just over 1 in 5 non-immigrants. By August, the unemployment rate had fallen to 13% for both groups, but remained extremely high, at around three times their pre-recession rate.

Federal and State Policymakers Need to Do More to Respond to the COVID-19 Recession

Six months into the COVID-19 recession, California is still down 1.7 million jobs and California’s workers continue to face extremely high unemployment rates. These facts point to the urgent need for federal and state policymakers to do more to address both the public health and economic crisis. Failing to do so will pile onto the hits to Black and brown Californians and be yet another policy choice that exacerbates longstanding racial, ethnic, and gender disparities. Lawmakers can alleviate the economic pain millions of Californians are feeling and prevent those pains from hardening into deep scars with a combination of policies at the federal and state level.

Federal policymakers should provide more economic relief including:

  • Reinstating the $600-per-week additional unemployment benefit that expired in late July so that out-of-work Californians can continue to pay the rent and buy groceries for their families.
  • Providing rental assistance to people at risk of eviction because losing housing threatens families’ economic security and could put more people at risk of contracting COVID-19.
  • Increasing food assistance benefits so that Californians who are struggling to buy enough food during the pandemic and recession do not go hungry.
  • Providing more aid to state and local governments in order to avoid large reductions in education, health, and other critical services and to prevent more layoffs.
  • Assisting child care providers who are maintaining safe places for children to learn and grow during the pandemic and are essential to working parents and those seeking to return to the workforce.

California policymakers should continue to fill in where federal economic relief policies fall short. One of the most glaring shortcomings of federal policymakers’ response to the COVID-19 recession is that economic relief measures excluded undocumented immigrants and their families, diminishing the economic security of millions of Californians. State leaders could help to reduce this harm by:

  • Providing emergency food assistance to undocumented Californians and their families, who are likely at high risk of being unable to afford enough food during the pandemic.
  • Providing financial assistance to help undocumented workers who lose their jobs and are shut out of state and federal unemployment insurance benefits.
  • Working toward extending eligibility for comprehensive Medi-Cal health coverage to all income-eligible adults who are excluded from such coverage due to their immigration status. 

Technical note

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) believes that during the COVID-19 recession a large number of workers who reported being employed but absent from work were in fact on temporary layoff and should have been counted as unemployed. Each month since March, the BLS has estimated how many workers may have been misclassified in this way and has reported what the national unemployment rate would have been had these workers been counted as unemployed. This analysis follows the BLS methodology for identifying potentially misclassified workers, which is described here, and adds these workers to the number of unemployed in order to calculate adjusted unemployment rates. These rates should be more accurate than rates calculated with no adjustments.

Nevertheless, these adjusted unemployment rates may still understate unemployment for a different reason. To be counted as unemployed, workers must have made specific efforts to find employment in the past four weeks. If they did not, then they are counted as not in the labor force even if they want to work. This means that they are not included in the unemployment rate. However, it’s likely that many workers who lost their jobs during the COVID-19 recession did not search for work even if they wanted a job, particularly at the beginning of the recession when state-mandated business closures meant that there were far fewer jobs available. Moreover, California temporarily waived the requirement that unemployed workers search for jobs each week in order to receive unemployment benefits, reducing the incentive for workers to search for new jobs. Some economists have published adjusted unemployment rates that are likely more accurate because they reclassify some individuals who recently dropped out of the labor force as unemployed. This analysis, however, does not attempt to correct for this problem, which means that actual unemployment rates for Californians may be higher than what is presented in this report.

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The COVID-19 public health and economic crisis is not easing for Californians – even as businesses have been allowed to reopen and may be able to hire some workers. For many Californians who earned low wages and struggled with the cost of living before the pandemic, this recession and the job losses are only worsening the economic disparities they experience every day.

Who is hit hardest by California’s job losses that are far worse than the Great Recession? Women and people of color. In only two months – between February and April of this year – California lost 2.6 million jobs. That’s twice as many jobs as California lost during the Great Recession over almost three years. Senior Policy Analyst Alissa Anderson shares more about what the job losses mean for Californians and what policymakers can do to extend support needed now.

Know the numbers: 

The COVID-19 recession is far more severe for California than the Great Recession that hit about a decade ago, which was the worst downturn since the Great Depression. In just two months of the COVID-19 recession, California lost 2.6 million jobs – twice as many as the state lost over 31 months due to the Great Recession.

The majority of jobs California lost in the first two months of the COVID-19 recession were in low-paying industries. This means that many of the people who have lost work were already struggling before the crisis and are unlikely to have a financial cushion to weather this downturn.

The COVID-19 recession has hit women and people of color especially hard. For example, during the first three months of the downturn, employment for Black and Latinx women fell by over 20% – more than three times the decline in employment for white men.

Immigrants have also been hit hard by the COVID-19 recession. Employment for both women and men who are immigrants declined far more than for their non-immigrant counterparts during the first three months of the recession. Immigrant women saw the steepest decline in employment.

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Choosing between paying the bills or caring for their families has never been an easy choice for California workers, and COVID-19 health and economic conditions have only exacerbated that dilemma. The federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act temporarily addresses workers’ lack of paid time off in the United States by requiring employers to provide both paid sick days and job-protected paid leave to care for a family member (see Table for more details). While the federal government will provide tax credits to businesses to cover the cost of the required leave policies, the federal law has exemptions that allow some employers to opt out of providing paid time off to workers, many of whom earn low wages, have limited benefits, and are at heighted risk of being exposed to COVID-19.

Workers ineligible for new federal leave laws may be able to rely on California’s family and medical leave laws, but these policies also have limitations that create barriers for workers taking paid time off from work. These barriers are particularly acute for workers with low wages – disproportionately women, Black, and Latinx workers. Finally, some workers may be covered by their employers’ benefits, but workers with low wages are far less likely to have paid time off via workplace benefits. This means that even as state leaders work to stop the spread of COVID-19 and have directed people to stay home, some workers cannot access paid time off to care for themselves or family members and still support their household needs.

How are workers caught in the paid time off gap?

Caught in the Gap: A part-time cashier at a nationwide pharmacy needs several weeks away from work to stay home to care for her spouse who is gravely ill and is under an isolation order, but she is ineligible for federal paid time off because she works for an employer with more than 500 employees. While this worker could use California’s paid family leave, she would not be able to take leave with job security because she works just 20 hours a week, which does not meet the requirements for job-protected leave under California law. Closing the Gap for Workers:

  • Federal policymakers should require large businesses with more than 500 employees who are currently excluded in the Families First Act to provide paid time off. This could reach millions of additional workers in California.
  • State policymakers should extend job protections to all workers who take family and medical leave regardless of the size of the employer, hours worked, or tenure.

Caught in the Gap: A single mom working at a small, local grocery story finds herself without care for her children due to the closure of local schools and day care centers. Her employer has told her that providing her with paid time off to care for her children would be a hardship that would jeopardize the business, and she is not eligible to utilize federal paid leave. California’s paid family leave program is not an option for parents who suddenly find themselves without care for their children due to a public health emergency. Her only option is to apply for unemployment insurance benefits. Closing the Gap for Workers:

  • Federal leaders should limit small-business exemptions to those who would be forced to immediately close if they gave their employees paid time off under this new federal leave program. Currently, the Department of Labor definition of hardship is vague and requires only self-certification by small employers. Small businesses should also be required to submit a simple form to the federal Department of Labor, rather than current practice, which is to self-certify without any documentation.
  • State policymakers should include care for a family member due to the closure of school, child care center, or adult day center during a public health emergency or natural disaster as a reason one can utilize paid family leave.

Caught in the Gap: A worker in the cleaning and maintenance department of a small, rural hospital fears he might have been exposed to COVID-19 when he dropped off groceries for his mother who has since tested positive for the virus. He knows he should self-quarantine for the recommended 14 days, but he only has three days of sick time under California’s paid sick days law and he’s worried about paying his bills. His employer has already informed him that he is considered a health care worker, and they won’t be providing any paid sick days under new federal laws. He could apply for state disability insurance, but he needs medical certification. Unfortunately, even though he works in a hospital, he does not have a primary care doctor, has been unable to schedule an appointment with a new doctor, and is afraid to go to urgent care due to the risk of spreading the virus or increasing his risk of exposure. Closing the Gap for Workers:

  • Federal policymakers should provide health care workers and emergency responders with paid time off to care for themselves or their family. The regulations are overly broad and allow employers to exclude many workers, many of whom have a greater chance of being exposed to COVID-19, and they may need time off, too. Adding to their dilemma and economic hardship, many of these workers likely earn low wages, such as janitors in hospitals and factory workers building medical supplies.
  • State policymakers should increase the minimum required number of paid sick days provided by all employers, which is currently just three days or 24 hours, to the equivalent of two weeks during a public health emergency and seven days when not in a public health emergency. Governor Newsom recently signed an Executive Order expanding paid sick days, but just for essential workers in the food sector who work for large employers currently excluded from federal law.
  • State policymakers should waive medical certification necessary for state disability insurance or paid family leave during a public health emergency to ease the strain on the health care system.

Everyone needs time off to care for themselves or their families, and the COVID-19 pandemic has only heightened the necessity for all workers – crisis or not – to know they can safely keep their jobs and care for the health and well-being of loved ones. State and federal laws create a patchwork of policies to address the need for paid time off but leave notable gaps and workers without a reliable way to care for themselves and others. Both state and federal policymakers should take additional action in the midst of this public health and economic crisis to support California’s workforce in the same way workers show up for the economy every day.

Support for this work is provided by First 5 California. 

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Source: Budget Center analysis of federal and California state law and administrative documents.

1 The law doesn’t apply to workers covered under a collective bargaining agreement with certain provisions, to certain public employees, and certain airline employees.

2 Certain employees and certain types of employment are exempt and don’t contribute to state disability insurance. In addition, employers or a majority of employees can opt into voluntary disability plans 

in lieu of state disability insurance and paid family leave with approval from the state.

3 Businesses with fewer than 50 employees can opt out of providing paid sick days or paid leave for workers who need time off to care for family due to a closure of a care facility if it would jeopardize the         

business.

4 Employers can opt to exclude health care workers and emergency responders.

5 The definition of “family member” varies across state and federal laws.

6 May be prorated for part-time work.

7 The 2019-20 budget agreement extended the duration from six weeks to eight, effective July 1, 2020.

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Introcudtion

California is home to an estimated 2 to 3.1 million individuals who are undocumented immigrants, making up approximately 6% of the state’s total population. These workers, parents, children, and their family members – many of whom are US-born citizens – are deeply integrated in the state’s communities and vital to the state’s economy.

California’s undocumented workers are especially hard-hit by the economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis, and yet they are locked out of most of the federal and state public supports available to help workers and their families weather this pandemic. State leaders should prioritize supporting this essential group of Californians who are at severe risk of financial and health hardship but blocked from COVID-19 public relief efforts.

In this 5 Facts you will learn about:

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Millions of California workers have lost jobs or seen their work hours significantly cut back as a result of the public health measures that state and local governments have put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19. While necessary to protect the state’s health care system and mitigate the spread of infection, these disruptions seriously threaten the economic stability of a significant share of California workers – and their families. Yet these disruptions do not affect all Californians equally, with a greater burden on California workers with less education, those who are immigrants, and California’s children and adults of color.

To understand who may be most affected, this piece examines the demographics of workers and the families of workers in California industries that are directly and immediately affected by the business slowdown and closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

In this fact sheet you will learn about:

  1. Who are the State’s Struggling Workers: Many Californians Face High Risk of Economic Devastation from the COVID-19 Business Slowdown
  2. Wage & Educational Disparities: Workers With Low Wages and Less Education Face High Risk of Losing Work
  3. Job Hits Worsen Racial Inequalities: Californians of Color and Their Children Are Particularly Vulnerable to Economic Instability
  4. Impossible Situation for Immigrants: California’s Immigrants Face Financial Crisis, With Millions Left out of Public Support
  5. Opportunities Now & Beyond: Policymakers Can Address Racial and Economic Inequities with COVID-19 Responses
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Too many families and individuals in all regions of California struggle to afford the costs of housing, child care, health care, food, and other basic necessities – with serious consequences for health and well-being that can also affect the broader community and economy. Many families that include immigrants face particular challenges to maintaining economic security, even in a strong economy, due to jobs with low wages, unstable work, and the “chilling effect” of recent anti-immigrant federal actions. An economic downturn would likely hit these families and their communities especially hard.

At the same time, refundable income tax credits are proven and powerful tools to boost economic security for families and individuals, and California policymakers have made significant state investments in the state’s Earned Income Tax Credit – the CalEITC – and new Young Child Tax Credit.

However, hundreds of thousands of immigrant families are currently excluded from the

CalEITC and Young Child Tax Credit. State lawmakers can choose to include these Californians with a simple change to filing requirements for these tax credits. Doing so would boost economic security for families and individuals in every legislative district, while pumping millions of dollars into local economies throughout California.

Find our estimated economic benefit by each Senate and Assembly District in California below and the boost local economies would see if policymakers expanded the CalEITC and Young Child Tax Credit to all California who work and pay taxes.

California State Senate

Click below to get the Fact Sheet for your state senate district. (Find your representative)

District   1 –  Sen.  Brian Dahle (R) District   21 –  Sen.  Scott Wilk (R)
District   2 –  Sen.  Mike McGuire (D) District   22 –  Sen.  Susan Rubio (D)
District   3 –  Sen.  Bill Dodd (D) District   23 –  Sen.  Mike Morrell (R)
District   4 –  Sen.  Jim Nielsen (R) District   24 –  Sen.  Maria Elena Durazo (D)
District   5 –  Sen.  Cathleen Galgiani (D) District   25 –  Sen.  Anthony Portantino (D) 
District   6 –  Sen.  Richard Pan (D) District   26 –  Sen.  Ben Allen (D)
District   7 –  Sen.  Steve Glazer (D) District   27 –  Sen.  Henry Stern (D)
District   8 –  Sen.  Andreas Borgeas (R) District   28 –  VACANT
District   9 –  Sen.  Nancy Skinner (D) District   29 –  Sen.  Ling Ling Chang (R) 
District   10 –  Sen.  Bob Wieckowski (D) District   30 –  Sen.  Holly Mitchell (D)
District   11 –  Sen.  Scott Wiener (D) District   31 –  Sen.  Richard Roth (D)
District   12 –  Sen.  Anna Caballero (D) District   32 –  Sen.  Bob Archuleta (D)
District   13 –  Sen.  Jerry Hill (D) District   33 –  Sen.  Lena Gonzalez (D)
District   14 –  Sen.  Melissa Hurtado (D) District   34 –  Sen.  Tom Umberg (D)
District   15 –  Sen.  Jim Beall (D) District   35 –  Sen.  Steven Bradford (D)
District   16 –  Sen.  Shannon Grove (R) District   36 –  Sen.  Patricia Bates (R)
District   17 –  Sen.  Bill Monning (D) District   37 –  Sen.  John Moorlach (R)
District   18 –  Sen.  Bob Hertzberg (D) District   38 –  Sen.  Brian Jones (R)
District   19 –  Sen.  Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) District   39 –  Sen.  Toni Atkins (D)
District   20 –  Sen.  Connie Leyva (D) District   40 –  Sen.  Ben Hueso (D)

California State Assembly

Click below to get the Fact Sheet for your state assembly district. (Find your representative)

District  1 –  Asm.  Megan Dahle (R) District  41 –  Asm.  Chris Holden (D)
District  2 –  Asm.  Jim Wood (D) District  42 –  Asm.  Chad Mayes (I)
District  3 –  Asm.  James Gallagher (R) District  43 –  Asm.  Laura Friedman (D)
District  4 –  Asm.  Cecilia Aguiar-Curry (D) District  44 –  Asm.  Jacqui Irwin (D)
District  5 –  Asm.  Frank Bigelow (R) District  45 –  Asm.  Jesse Gabriel (D)
District  6 –  Asm.  Kevin Kiley (R) District  46 –  Asm.  Adrin Nazarian (D)
District  7 –  Asm.  Kevin McCarty (D) District  47 –  Asm.  Eloise Gomez Reyes (D)
District  8 –  Asm.  Ken Cooley (D) District  48 –  Asm.  Blanca Rubio (D)
District  9 –  Asm.  Jim Cooper (D) District  49 –  Asm.  Ed Chau (D)
District  10 –  Asm.  Marc Levine (D) District  50 –  Asm.  Richard Bloom (D)
District  11 –  Asm.  Jim Frazier (D) District  51 –  Asm.  Wendy Carrillo (D)
District  12 –  Asm.  Heath Flora (R) District  52 –  Asm.  Freddie Rodriguez (D)
District  13 –  Asm.  Susan Eggman (D) District  53 –  Asm.  Miguel Santiago (D)
District  14 –  Asm.  Tim Grayson (D) District  54 –  Asm.  Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
District  15 –  Asm.  Buffy Wicks (D) District  55 –  Asm.  Phillip Chen (R)
District  16 –  Asm.  Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D) District  56 –  Asm.  Eduardo Garcia (D)
District  17 –  Asm.  David Chiu (D) District  57 –  Asm.  Ian Calderon (D)
District  18 –  Asm.  Rob Bonta (D) District  58 –  Asm.  Cristina Garcia (D)
District  19 –  Asm.  Phil Ting (D) District  59 –  Asm.  Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D)
District  20 –  Asm.  Bill Quirk (D) District  60 –  Asm.  Sabrina Cervantes (D)
District  21 –  Asm.  Adam Gray (D) District  61 –  Asm.  Jose Medina (D)
District  22 –  Asm.  Kevin Mullin (D) District  62 –  Asm.  Autumn Burke (D)
District  23 –  Asm.  Jim Patterson (R) District  63 –  Asm.  Anthony Rendon (D)
District  24 –  Asm.  Marc Berman (D) District  64 –  Asm.  Mike Gipson (D)
District  25 –  Asm.  Kansen Chu (D) District  65 –  Asm.  Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)
District  26 –  Asm.  Devon Mathis (R) District  66 –  Asm.  Al Muratsuchi (D)
District  27 –  Asm.  Ash Kalra (D) District  67 –  Asm.  Melissa Melendez (R)
District  28 –  Asm.  Evan Low (D) District  68 –  Asm.  Steven Choi (R)
District  29 –  Asm.  Mark Stone (D) District  69 –  Asm.  Tom Daly (D)
District  30 –  Asm.  Robert Rivas (D) District  70 –  Asm.  Patrick O’Donnell (D)
District  31 –  Asm.  Joaquin Arambula (D) District  71 –  Asm.  Randy Voepel (R)
District  32 –  Asm.  Rudy Salas (D) District  72 –  Asm.  Tyler Diep (R)
District  33 –  Asm.  Jay Obernolte (R) District  73 –  Asm.  Bill Brough (R)
District  34 –  Asm.  Vince Fong (R) District  74 –  Asm.  Cottie Petrie-Norris (D)
District  35 –  Asm.  Jordan Cunningham (R) District  75 –  Asm.  Marie Waldron (R)
District  36 –  Asm.  Tom Lackey (R) District  76 –  Asm.  Tasha Boerner Horvath (D)
District  37 –  Asm.  Monique Limon (D) District  77 –  Asm.  Brian Maienschein (D)
District  38 –  Asm.  Christy Smith (D) District  78 –  Asm.  Todd Gloria (D)
District  39 –  Asm.  Luz Rivas (D) District  79 –  Asm.  Shirley Weber (D)
District  40 –  Asm.  James Ramos (D) District  80 –  Asm.  Lorena Gonzalez (D)
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It has been over a decade since the Great Recession devastated our state’s economy, caused massive state budget shortfalls, and undercut the short- and long-term economic and social prospects for millions of Californians. As revenues fell, state policymakers balanced the budget, in part, by making drastic cuts to social safety net programs such as Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment (SSI/SSP), which helps to support more than 1 million seniors and people with disabilities with low incomes. California is now well into its economic recovery, and state policymakers have spent recent years preparing for another downturn by creating a healthy budget surplus. However, policymakers still have not yet reversed the cuts they made to SSI/SSP. This Issue Brief explores why SSI/SSP is such an important resource for Californians with low incomes, particularly older women and people of color, and why state policymakers should reinvest in the program that helps people be able to pay for their basic needs.

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